This month — net sales

—

Pace vs $100k goal

Orders

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Pace vs 4,200 standard

Catering share

—

Total Owner SDE — month at pace

—

Earnings stack

Debt service / mo

$3,286.68

SBA · Byline Bank
Final payment Jun 5, 2029

Fixed ex-debt / mo

$15,213.32

ASSUMPTION

Targets food · labor · prime

39 · 25 · 64

Prime target goal 60

Card processing

2.90%

Verified · memo only, netted in settlements

Advertising · October (inside Fixed)

$1,256.33

Google Ads $1,256.33 REAL
Meta UNVERIFIED expected $0 · Print · EDDM · Flyers · In-order · Stickers $0

Details — basis, caveats, gaps

Revenue: sale-dated, payout values per channel (Toast net · Foodsby NET PAYOUT · ezCater caterer-due). “Earned” is a settlement STATUS on the sale-dated record.

GAP “Sold, not yet settled” split — the per-channel settlement-date source (F-E7) is not yet a field in the data layer, so the split is labeled, not approximated.

PARTIAL Labor — full two-layer labor (QBO Payroll + 7shifts off-payroll) publishes PARTIAL until both layers land. Owner comp prints below earnings, never inside operating labor.

⚠ Recorded-cost basis — Milagro (paper) not yet captured; Sysco wired Oct 28 (balance $0); Christiano first capture Oct 28.

Fixed: $18,500 incl. debt service (Branch B) − $3,286.68 = $15,213.32 ex-debt. Never deduct both at full value. No compliance/tax figures on this view.

Projections

Break-even / mo · incl. debt

$69,257

ESTIMATE Ex-debt $61,844

$85k month · SDE

$10,269

After debt $6,982/mo

$93k month · SDE

$13,816

After debt $10,529/mo

$100k month · SDE

≈$16,921

ESTIMATE After debt ≈$13,634/mo

GOAL case · prime 60%

$155,113/yr

GOAL Theoretical earnings after debt

Modeled-levers case · prime 62.3%

$132,272/yr

MODELED Four levers, bridge +$70,285/yr

Goal gap

$22,841/yr

UNATTRIBUTED — assigned to no lever

Modeled covers 85% of goal

2027 LOW · +6%

≈$206,324

SDE · revenue $1,054,184 · after debt ≈$166,884

2027 BASE · +12%

≈$217,984

SDE · revenue $1,113,855 · after debt ≈$178,544

2027 HIGH · +18%

≈$229,645

SDE · revenue $1,173,525 · after debt ≈$190,205

Alcohol overlay · on BASE

B&W +$18,987 → +$34,581

MODELED ONLY Full liquor +$16,559 → +$32,599 · alcohol = 3% of sales → 5% stabilized

Full analysis — projections basis

SDE = total earnings before debt service (owner framing, Oct 28). Debt line in every scenario: $3,286.68/mo, final payment Jun 5, 2029.

Break-even: ESTIMATE — Finance-derived, linear, from the model's calibrated points ($77,241 → after-debt $3,541; $85,000 → $6,982; slope 44.35%). $100k month: ESTIMATE — linear extension from the $93k point.

Lever bridge (governing file, restated): Lever 1 +$16,128 · Lever 2 +$49,408 · Lever 3 +$3,715 · Lever 4 +$1,034 (net delivery position) = +$70,285/yr. The modeled-levers case is a computed output, NOT a goal. Governing starting line: food 39 · labor 25 · prime 64 — 62% is a waypoint only.

2027 cases: ESTIMATE — the goal case's SDE margin (19.57%) applied to the revenue cases, on the deployed 60% prime structure; debt service a full year at $39,440.

Alcohol: MODELED ONLY. Settled assumption — alcohol = 3% of total sales initially, rising to 5% after stabilization; fast-casual reference class, conservative, year 1 ≈ 55% of stabilized. Full liquor: +$16,559 initial → +$32,599 stabilized. Beer & wine: +$18,987 initial → +$34,581 stabilized.

Revenue-uplift layer · planning total (BASE)

≈ +$25k/yr

SEPARATE LAYER — NEVER IN THE BASE CASE LOW ≈ +$13k · HIGH ≈ +$44k · Halo booked at $0

Layer lines

ezCater → direct conversion: −$0.5k / $0 / +$1k (LOW/BASE/HIGH) — matched-basket net; per-order shift ≈ $0 by design.

Catering-system direct growth (+2/+5/+10% of revenue): +$6.6k / +$16.5k / +$32.9k — SPECULATION % on EVIDENCE of demand.

Drinks repricing Tier 0+1: +$6.7k / +$8.5k / +$10.2k — EVIDENCE volumes · ESTIMATE run-rate · owner-gated.

Foodsby growth: $0 / $0 / $0 — flat by EVIDENCE.

Halo: $0 booked in the planning set. RESEARCH set (halo included): totals ≈ +$13.4k / +$28.1k / +$60.7k per year — marked RESEARCH.

Market research

Catering halo · exposure

~900–1,000

People fed via catering / month at October pace · RESEARCH Booked at $0 until the 90-day measurement replaces assumptions

Peer benchmark · weekly sales

$18.7k vs peers $15.4k

Toast peer set · week ending ~Oct 25, 2026 · Tacochela ahead ▲

Pricing watch · material gaps (DIRECT channel, ours) — yellow bar = our price · track = market level · magenta tick = target

Mexican Coke

$2.50 / $4.50

Jarritos

$2.50 / $3.67

Topo Chico

$2.95 / $4.48

Targets of record: Coke $3.99 · Jarritos $3.50 · Topo Chico $3.99 (marketplace-anchored, softer). Market = marketplace median; Coke direct range $3.50–$4.00 · Jarritos direct range $3.00–$3.50 · Topo Chico: no direct points captured.

Full analysis — research basis

Pricing Watch register capture, Oct 28, 2026. Channel discipline: our prices are DIRECT (order.tacochela.com); competitor medians are labeled by channel — never compare across channels unlabeled. The full register (item × competitor × price × size × date × source) is the record behind this snapshot.

Halo recipe (research set): events × 25 guests × 40/55/70% effective exposure × 5/15/30% conversion × 2/3/5 visits × $13/$16/$20 check, at 8 events/mo → halo revenue $1.25k / $9.5k / $50.4k. The ezCater vendor survey series (47% → 70% → 62%) is published but NOT used as a rate anywhere in this set.

Figure set: Finance, 2026-10-28 (pl-owner-hub-projections-figure-set). Labels travel with the figures; nothing here is the base case unless labeled governing.

Trend — net sales by month

Catering pipeline

All pipeline rows

Oversight — what needs attention

All manager tasks

Directives & reports

Issue a directive to the GM

Reports from the manager

Feature requests

Requests are made in the Manager Hub (the ✦ button). They land here automatically — one list for both hubs.

Money & costs

Full money & costs notes

Item sales — top sellers

Full item picture

Overview notes

Read the overview

Round Table — decisions

Open the decision board

Briefs

Read the briefs

Inventory

Shrinkage this month

NOT COUNTED

Never shown as zero

86 list

2 items

Out since Oct 21 · recheck missing

Inventory details

Owner-only · PIN-gated · URL is a credential — bookmark the plain link only.
Frontend: this page, served on the Tacochela Cloudflare bridge · Data tier: Apps Script + the Owner Overview workbook underneath — the workbook is the data layer, never the hub itself.
Basis: Finance's real-earnings definition of record (Oct 26, as corrected) · Cross-check filed 2026-10-28.